Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, May 20th

Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly with little to drive trading other than some early stock weakness. The major stock indexes are starting the new week with the Dow down 144 points and the Nasdaq down 126 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.38%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at Friday’s early levels.

2/32

Bonds

30 yr - 2.38%

144

Dow

25,619

126

NASDAQ

7,690

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

None

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data that may impact mortgage rates in addition to the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. None of the releases are considered key or expected to be a market mover, but one of the reports carries enough importance to heavily affect mortgage pricing if it shows a decent-sized variance from forecasts. We also need to watch for the final corporate earnings reports of the quarter and trade war news as they can directly influence stocks enough to change mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

The National Association of Realtors will give us their Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This data will give us a measurement of housing sector strength by tracking resales of existing homes in the U.S. This type of data is relevant because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely. Current forecasts are calling for rise in home sales between March and April. Ideally, the bond market would prefer to see a large decline, indicating sector weakness. A large increase in sales could lead to bond weakness and a slight increase in mortgage rates tomorrow morning since a strengthening housing sector raises optimism about general economic growth.

---

Unknown

None

Overall, the best candidate for most active day of the week is Friday since it has the most important economic data (Durable Goods Orders), but Wednesday afternoon could be interesting if the FOMC minutes shows any big surprises. Despite having a small number of economic reports, it is still possible for the markets to make large moves. Therefore, it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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