Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, November 20th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again, pushing yields into favorable ground for mortgage rates. Stocks are showing moderate losses of 59 points in the Dow and 6 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 12/32 (1.74%), but likely will see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates.

12/32

Bonds

30 yr - 1.74%

59

Dow

27,874

6

NASDAQ

8,563

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Bond Trends

This morning’s bond gains have caused the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield to fall below 1.78%. As long as that holds, it allows us to be optimistic that rates will move lower in the near future. At the very least, the risk of floating an interest rate eases for the time being. That can change with a single unexpected news release or event, so it would be prudent to still watch the markets if currently floating an interest rate and closing soon.

Medium

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

Today has no relevant economic data scheduled for release but does have the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed's next move regarding monetary policy. The minutes will show what economic concerns members have that influenced their vote for a quarter point rate cut at the last meeting. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during mid-afternoon trading. These minutes may lead to afternoon volatility, or they may be a non-factor. Because they do carry the potential to influence mortgage rates, they should be watched.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Tomorrow has two moderately important pieces of economic data, both at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtor’s Existing Home Sales report is one. It will give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales in the U.S. This report is expected to show a small rise in sales, meaning the housing sector strengthened slightly last month. That would be relatively bad news for the bond market and mortgage pricing because a stronger housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely. However, unless it shows a significant surprise, it will likely not have a major impact on tomorrow’s rates.

Medium

Unknown

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Also set for release late tomorrow morning is the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report for October. This Conference Board release is a moderately important report that attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.1% decline, meaning economic activity will likely slip over the next couple of months. Generally speaking, this would be good news for bonds. However, since this data is considered only moderately important, its results need to miss forecasts by a wide margin for it to affect mortgage rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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